🔗 Share this article

The direst projected effects of the climate crisis for the UK have been mapped by researchers, including a blistering 4C jump in temperatures to a two-metre rise in sea levels. An alternative projection envisions a plunge of 6C in temperatures following the failure of critical Atlantic Ocean currents, which would massively disrupt farming and power requirements.

Possible Extremes, Not Guarantees

These consequences, a number of which are connected to critical climate thresholds, are viewed as unlikely but plausible. The team said that these scenarios plugged a hole in forecasting that had rendered the UK unprepared for worst-case results.

"The severe weather events we have mapped should not be seen as certainties, but they are plausible," stated Nigel Arnell who oversaw the research. "The nation has been planning lacking the frameworks to plan for extreme possibilities. We've now provided policymakers what they need to prepare for environmental results they wish to avoid, but can’t afford to ignore."

A Spectrum of Severe Conditions Projections

A further series of severe models sets out the potential extent of severe conditions between now and the close of the 2100s. These show that thermometer readings could skyrocket in particular seasons by up to 6C above average, while precipitation could be triple standard measurements.

The probability of the extreme scenarios happening could not be calculated due to unknown factors about what steps will be taken to tackle climate change and how the climate system will react. This approach was described as similar to national security risk assessments or stress tests for the banking sector.

Critical Scenario Elements

• Four-Degree Warming: Worldwide averages exceeding 4C by 2100 could occur if climate action breaks down or if strong feedback loops like the Amazon basin becoming a net carbon source emit its vast reserves of carbon. This would lead to severe and lengthy heat domes and water shortages affecting the UK in summer.
• Atlantic Current Collapse: A major ocean current, the North Atlantic current, is losing strength and showing signs of collapse due to ocean warming. A collapse commencing by 2030 would lead to a drastic cooling in the UK. "Crop production would face immense difficulties and water supplies would be completely altered," explained Arnell.
• Rapid Sea Level Rise: A increase of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could take place if glaciers in the polar regions melt abruptly, inundating coastal cities and towns. Differing from the other scenarios, this risk is already recognized by coastal engineers.
• Clean Air Warming: Temperatures could also be pushed higher by about 0.75C if pollution from industry is drastically reduced. This counterintuitive effect occurs because tiny specks from burning coal reflect solar radiation from warming the ground.

Planning for the Unthinkable

These dire projections could be applied to guide the construction of critical national infrastructure, for example housing developments, power generation facilities and flood defences. Awareness of these climate risks could also speed the transition to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

The analysis developed the extreme models using a mix of past data and records, computer simulations and scientific theory. These outcomes omit potential global problems including the global food shortages and increased conflict.

The research was commissioned as part of a national risk assessment framework. Earlier reports have stated that too little consideration was being allocated to low‐likelihood but high‐impact risks.

The government's climate advisors has recommended that the UK needs to "prepare for two degrees of warming" and examine the dangers for four degrees. Past policy documents have been labeled being "inadequate" by some observers.

An official statement noted: "Global warming is at the center of this government’s agenda, both building resilience and transitioning to a clean energy superpower. It is vital that the UK is prepared for the effects."