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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, especially given Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would constitute assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not seen the details of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. A key demand centers on Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security formations instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he added.