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A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."